The crisis in West Asia due to months of US-Iran war can potentially put millions of livelihoods in India at risk while at the same creae opportunity to create millions of new opportunities in near future.
In its newly launched peer-reviewed study, “Paving a Green Transition: A New Social Contract Amid West Asia Crisis,” IPE Global warns that nearly 10 – 12 million livelihoods are at risk across key sectors in India, while arguing that a decisive could turn this moment of uncertainty into a catalyst for long-term economic resilience and green transition.
The brief argues that India’s challenge is not a shortage of policy ambition. India already possesses an extensive ecosystem of schemes, including PM-KUSUM, the , Production Linked Incentives (PLI), the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), PM Pranam, RDSS, and Agri Stack, but these continue to operate in silos.
The report proposes a sectoral convergence across Agriculture, Energy, and Industry to unlock the full economic, employment, and climate potential of this existing ecosystem.
“The West Asia crisis has exposed how closely energy security, food security, livelihoods, and climate resilience are tied together, and our analysis shows that addressing them in isolation is no longer an option,” said Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director – IPE Global.
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IPE Global Limited is an international development organisation providing innovative solutions for anchoring development agenda to create a better world for all.
“The fact that India can mobilise USD 42-53 billion funding cushion from within its own scheme architecture-without waiting for external finance-speaks to the maturity of our institutions and the strength of homegrown solutions. This is what self-reliant, sustainable development looks like in practice: an Indian organisation, drawing on Indian policy architecture, charting a pathway that the rest of the can learn from,” Singh said.
The study argues thatstates with the highest exposure to West Asia crisis job losses-Kerala, Bihar, UP- are not always the states with the highest green jobs absorption capacity, since green jobs cluster around renewable resource endowments (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and industrial corridors (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra).
It also, finds that current set-up creates a geographic mismatch problem: the workers most at risk and the jobs being created are not always in the same place, which has direct implications for skilling, migration policy, and where green investment should be prioritised (e.g., accelerating PM-KUSUM and natural farming specifically in UP and Bihar to absorb local job losses, rather than relying solely on national aggregate job creation).
The state wise pattern
States with the highest exposure to West Asia crisis job losses –Kerala, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh– are not always the states with the highest green job absorption capacity, since green jobs cluster around renewable resource endowments (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra).
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This creates a geographic mismatch problem: the workers most at risk and the jobs being created are not always in the same place, which has direct implications for skilling, migration policy, and where green investment should be prioritised (e.g., accelerating and natural farming specifically in UP and Bihar to absorb local job losses, rather than relying solely on national aggregate job creation).
“The numbers tell a story India cannot afford to ignore. With 85 per cent of our crude oil imported, and 10 to 12 million livelihoods across agriculture, energy, and industry exposed to a single geopolitical shock from West Asia, the fragility is real,” said Abinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the lead author of the study.
US Iran War
A US-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire between the two countries has been signed is now in effect.
President Donald Trump on 17 June formally signed the deal – which is set to reopen the pivotal Strait of Hormuz – while attending the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains in France.
The , which is known as a Memorandum of Understanding, says that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and also commits a $300bn fund for the “reconstruction and economic development” of the country – although the US is not required to contribute.
The agreement comes almost four months after the conflict between the countries started days after Israel attacked Iran.
