The Pahalgam terror attack on this day a year ago revealed the ruthless ambitions of an army chief and his willingness to risk high costs to achieve his objectives. That story is yet to close. As Pakistan revels in the acclaim of mediation, the reality is that it is still dangerously unstable, and Field Marshal Asim Munir knows it. The ruthless efficiency of Operation Sindoor is unlikely to restrain him in a world where war is now the norm rather than the exception. For Pakistan, the answer has always been the same. Another day, another attack, and perhaps more rewards.
Consider the days before Pahalgam. The arrest of then-Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, the massive protests that followed, and the infamous use of military courts to try civilians all led to public anger building against the army. Balochistan exploded with the arrest of the charismatic Mehrang Baloch, and Gilgit-Baltistan was paralysed with protests over electricity outages in sub-zero temperatures, halting CPEC-linked trade for days. In Sindh, the Opposition surged against federal plans to divert Indus waters for military agribusiness projects.
In the midst of all this came the Jaffar Express attack, claimed by the Balochistan Republican Army but blamed on India. Dramatic declarations of vengeance by the army chief followed, declaring that Hindus and Muslims could never co-exist. That very same train had been attacked at least seven times in 2025 alone and had come under serious attacks twice in late 2024. But Munir chose to rant on this, and Pahalgam followed a month later. Pakistan was asking for war. And it got it.
Perhaps, Islamabad did not anticipate the extent of destruction as Delhi targeted 13 airfields and nine terror camps. Yet, Pakistan’s narrative triumphed. A Gallup poll showed a full 96% in Pakistan believed that their country had triumphed in the war. Rewards followed, a loan from the International Monetary Fund and fulsome praise from a US president credited with ending the war by a gushing Pakistan. The self-elevation of the army chief to field marshal followed, and the ISI chief was appointed as national security advisor. Army rule was back, all boxes ticked.
Today, even as Pakistan projects itself as a mediator in the West Asia war, it is crumbling from within. The energy crisis has caused petrol prices to breach ₹500 a litre in just three weeks. True, the Iranian crisis led to Riyadh providing a fresh $2 billion deposit, even as Pakistan used it to pay off part of a $3.5-billion loan that the UAE had long been demanding. A $5-billion deposit was also extended, and it is assumed that fighter aircraft and 13,000 troops stationed in Saudi Arabia will be paid with Saudi funds. Meanwhile, despite fulsome praise, actual US aid in 2025 was a mere $180 million, and promised investments in rare earths and copper are yet to fructify.
A review shows that major lenders like Japan and the UK are hanging back. Meanwhile, Pakistan fought an expensive war in Afghanistan, involving the Peshawar and Quetta Corps, the artillery corps, the air force and the Frontier Corps. That “war” is not over; attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban continue to be reported. Meanwhile, Gilgit-Baltistan is seeing huge protests as civilians are tried in military courts. That followed massive Shia protests here and across the country after the US assassination of Ayatollah Khomeini. Separately, farmers’ protests swept the country as inflation worsened. In sum, Pakistan is still simmering as before. And the Pakistan army chief knows it.
Unsurprisingly, terrorist activities have returned. April alone has seen at least four major terror modules: One in Amritsar, an arms-smuggling group in Delhi; another in Kashmir with specific Pakistani connections; and the arrest of key operative Shabir Ahmed Lone on the Bangladesh border, revealing plans to attack major temples, including Kalkaji and the Lotus Temple. Days earlier, Pakistan’s defence minister Khwaja Asif was threatening to attack Kolkata, indicating a foot in the door in Bangladesh. In a bizarre development, a major Lashkar operative was claiming that the Pahalgam attack led directly to Pakistan’s heightened status and proximity to the US. And to top it all, Hafiz Saeed was seen greeting ministers at a wedding in Faisalabad.
With Iran and Gaza in flames and war in Ukraine likely to rise again as Europe gathers its funds, the unfortunate truth is that the shock of an Operation Sindoor may have paled. With its careful creation of an army rocket force last year that set up a conventional deterrent apart from its nuclear missiles, Islamabad is also learning lessons for the next war. And there will be a next war in a world where bloodshed is the new normal and army leaders are feted by democracies. The irony is inescapable. Iran was hit for being a terrorist sponsor. The mediator, however, is far worse. A Pakistani national was detained in the US just this month for attempted attacks against Jews. It is also a virtually acknowledged nuclear power. Now, consider that in a world order turned upside down.
Tara Kartha is a former director, National Security Council Secretariat. The views expressed are personal
