On April 23 and 29, West Bengal will head to the hustings, to elect a new state assembly. This is certainly a purely domestic affair. Yet, across the border, in Bangladesh, the contest is sure to be followed closely. Dhaka’s interest has nothing to do with political preference and is more about the consequences of the verdict — for Bangladesh, West Bengal is a geopolitical hinge, where domestic politics intersects with transboundary rivers, migration narratives, and the mechanics of bilateral cooperation.
The most immediate concern is water. The Teesta river is widely regarded as a “lifeline” for Bangladesh’s northern districts — the mainstay of nearly 7.3% of Bangladesh’s population. Efforts to reach a water-sharing agreement have remained unresolved for over a decade. A final deal had been expected of then Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh’s 2011 Dhaka visit, but collapsed at the last moment after West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee raised objections. For Bangladesh, the episode underscored how state-level politics can shape — even block — critical bilateral outcomes.
Banerjee’s 2015 Dhaka visit, followed by her return with PM Narendra Modi later that year, raised expectations but there was no breakthrough. The result has been a recurring cycle of optimism and disappointment, reinforcing a cautious view in Dhaka: Engagement with West Bengal matters, but doesn’t guarantee delivery. Political signalling, however, has been consistently warm. Following Banerjee’s 2021 electoral victory, former Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina highlighted her country’s “close and heartfelt” ties with West Bengal and expressed hope for deeper cooperation. This did not translate into progress on core issues.
Beyond water, the India-Bangladesh border — West Bengal accounts for a significant length — remains a politically-sensitive matter. Migration, smuggling, fencing, and enforcement are frequently embedded in West Bengal’s electoral discourse. During election cycles, rhetoric around “illegal migration” or demographic change tends to intensify, shaping narratives beyond India’s domestic sphere.
Political language in West Bengal can influence public perception, media framing, and, at times, the tone of bilateral engagement in Bangladesh — affecting trust. Electoral dynamics also shape this discourse. Muslims, who make up over a quarter of West Bengal’s population, are electorally influential, contributing to a more moderate tone on migration and citizenship under the Trinamool Congress (TMC). However, this restraint has not translated into progress on core issues like Teesta, highlighting the limits of electoral incentives in resolving structural constraints.
The current election highlights a divergence in political positioning within West Bengal — the BJP has foregrounded issues such as “infiltration”, border enforcement, and the Citizenship Amendment Act, alongside commitments such as implementing the Uniform Civil Code. Banerjee has consistently opposed most such measures, positioning herself and her party as defenders of social cohesion. The TMC’s poll manifesto signals an engagement-oriented approach toward Bangladesh, emphasising the strengthening of economic and cultural ties and a renewed focus on relations with immediate neighbours. This contrast is not lost on observers in Dhaka.
While a continuation of the current political alignment may suggest stability in tone, it also implies persistence of unresolved issues. A shift in political leadership, on the other hand, could introduce a sharper discourse around border and identity questions, even if the bilateral framework remains unchanged.
The polls underscore a practical reality for Bangladesh: Engagement with India’s eastern frontier is mediated through state-level politics in West Bengal. Dhaka has invested in building a cooperative relationship with New Delhi, anchored in connectivity, security cooperation, and economic integration. Still, the Teesta impasse and recurring sensitivities around border narratives illustrate that the relationship is not insulated from subnational dynamics.
This is not to suggest that the poll outcome will alter Bangladesh’s relationship with India. What is at stake, however, are the issues that are directly shaped by West Bengal’s political positioning. A state government more aligned with cross-border cooperation could create political space to revisit stalled negotiation. Then again, continuity in current positions may extend the existing pattern, i.e., incremental progress in some areas alongside persistent deadlock in others. A more securitised political approach could sharpen sensitivities and influence perceptions across the border. Therefore, for Bangladesh, the election serves as a barometer of how West Bengal’s political leadership may approach issues central to ties.
Syed Munir Khasru is senior director of the international think tank IPAG India, which also has presence in Dhaka, Melbourne, Dubai, and Vienna. The views expressed are personal
