The trade war that has started with is unlikely to be a one-way street, as rising tariffs on Ottawa could threaten Republican efforts to ease US voters’ economic concerns ahead of the midterm elections.
This year, control of the US Senate could hinge on states that border Canada. These states, including Michigan, Ohio and Alaska, could come under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, given Canada’s importance as a trading partner.
Even Republicans are not fully backing Trump over the tariffs, with Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine warning that the fallout from the US government’s approach could affect American businesses.
Quick answers to key questions
How could Canada’s energy supplies impact the US economy during the trade war?⌵
Canada provides nearly 60% of the crude oil imports to the US, so any restrictions or taxes on this energy source could significantly raise costs for US businesses and consumers.
What critical minerals does Canada supply to the US, and how might tariffs affect this trade?⌵
Canada is a major supplier of critical minerals like potash, lithium, and nickel to the US. Tariffs could disrupt this vital trade, impacting industries reliant on these minerals.
What consequences did US tariffs have on Canadian alcohol imports?⌵
In response to US tariffs, many Canadian provinces banned US alcohol, leading to a 78% drop in US wine exports to Canada and a loss of approximately $357 million for the US wine industry.
Why are Canadian citizens avoiding travel to the US, and what effect does this have?⌵
Many Canadians are boycotting travel to the US due to the trade tensions, resulting in a significant economic loss for the US, estimated at $2.35 billion in 2025.
How is the US auto industry affected by the 50% tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods from Canada?⌵
The 50% tariffs on Canadian auto parts may disrupt the integrated North American auto industry, potentially leading to job losses and increased costs in the US manufacturing sector.
During her campaign, Collins said on Monday, “Imposing new tariffs on Canada is a mistake,” while referring to products such as lobsters, blueberries and lumber that Maine exports to Canadian markets.
Against this backdrop, here is a look at how Canada could hurt the US as the two historical North American allies enter an uncharted trade war:
Canada could hit US energy supplies
Almost 60% of US crude oil imports come from Canada, and restricting or taxing these imports could raise costs for businesses and consumers in the US. Ottawa believes it has leverage in this area, with Prime Minister saying, “I don’t think they want us to stop sending any of that energy.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said that an “energy surcharge is on the table”. Earlier in 2025, he had floated a 25% surcharge on all electricity exports from Ontario to the US.
“I’d love to see [Trump] run cars without any oil. I’ll love to see him grow vegetables and fruit without the potash,” Ford said on Monday, according to the BBC. He added, “President Trump underestimates us, and that’s the biggest mistake.”
Canada could disrupt critical mineral supplies to the US
Canada is a major source of critical minerals and other raw materials imported by the US.
Canada is the world’s top supplier of potash, which is used to produce fertilisers. It also has reserves of critical minerals such as lithium, graphite and nickel.
The US is the largest buyer of Canadian mineral exports, giving Ottawa potential leverage in any trade dispute.
Ban on consumer goods can affect the US
Canada has previously shown that it can cause significant damage to US exports. Last year, in response to the first wave of US tariffs, most provinces in the country banned US alcohol from their shelves, dealing a major blow to the US alcohol industry.
The resulting fall in US wine exports prompted the Wine Institute to call it the “most significant market disruption in decades”.
According to government data, the bans led to a 78% fall in US wine exports to Canada, reducing US exports by $357 million.
The boycott remains in place in 11 of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories.
How Canadians’ travel boycott has hurt the US
This ban does not come from the administration but from Canadian citizens themselves. They have been avoiding travelling to the US. The BBC reported that Canadians’ trips to the US fell by 800,000 in April this year compared to the same period in 2024.
This travel boycott has resulted in a $2.35 billion loss to the US economy in 2025.
Target the US states politically
Canada is the top market to export goods to for 26 American states, and in the top three for 45 of them. Thus, Ottawa can target products from politically important states, which in turn may put pressure on their respective governors, businesses, and, in turn, politicians in the federal government.
Trump’s Canadian auto tariffs would hurt the US
Since the introduction of the North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement during the first term of Trump’s presidency, the auto industry could operate as if all of North America were a single market.
However, with Trump now raising tariffs on auto parts imported from Canada to 50%, this could disrupt cross-border flows and cut jobs in the US.
“The impact of unworkable tariffs would be felt well beyond Canadian assembly plants,” an expert told CNN.
