The landslide victory of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in the assembly elections in Kerala was widely anticipated. Most exit polls converged on a thin margin, while many independent analysts could see a clear wave. However, none foresaw the scale of UDF’s win.
There are two reasons why the UDF should savour this success. One, the delimitation of assembly constituencies in 2008 redrew Kerala’s electoral map in favour of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). This was reflected in all the outcomes since the 2011 assembly elections. Two, the CPM’s incumbent MLAs were seen to be popular, which influenced the party to renominate most of them. Against this backdrop, crossing the three-figure mark in the 140-seat assembly is no small deal.
The massive mandate of the UDF comes from multiple factors, ranging from an anti-incumbency sentiment; strong resentment within the Left parties, especially against the top leaders for their perceived arrogance; the alleged theft and misappropriation of gold plates at the Sabarimala temple; and the consolidation of minority votes in favour of the UDF.
The LDF was seeking a third consecutive term, having, in 2021, broken with Kerala’s tradition of office alternating between the two fronts. It believed the development of public infrastructure, a focus on the health and education sectors, and initiatives on building a comprehensive social welfare agenda, including a significant increase in pensions, would yield results. Voters weren’t impressed.
At the core of the erosion of the CPM’s base is a shift in political strategy, which saw the party completely or partially abandon certain values and political positions that had distinguished the Left parties in Kerala. In the last five years, the CPM prioritised a discourse of “development” over “ideology” in a bid to rebrand the party and make it more appealing to the masses, especially the middle class.
The shift in strategy, or “image revamp”, became explicit with the induction of a new class of spin doctors, mostly media professionals, who introduced messaging in ways very different from that of the traditional leaders. The spin doctors preferred cosmetic measures, whereas a radical revamping of the party was the need of the hour.
The shift in strategy even diluted the CPM’s traditional anti-imperialist stance that the communist parties upheld for decades. For instance, the Left preferred to be silent in its election campaign on two recent international crises — Israel’s aggression on Gaza and the war waged against Iran by the US and Israel. The CPM feared that open endorsement of anti-Israel positions could lead to the erosion of support among the majority Hindu community. The same party had overtly backed Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, against the US in 1992 and rallied around the Muslim community. The LDF won the local bodies poll that year.
The widespread perception that the CPM endorsed Vellapilly Natesan, president of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalanana Sangham (SNDP), an organisation established by the social reformer Narayana Guru, who frequently made anti-Muslim remarks, led to a consolidation of Muslim votes (27% of the state’s population) against the party.
Similarly, Dalit outfits felt that the LDF was increasingly immune to questions of social justice; its endorsement of reservation for the economically weaker classes (EWS) did not go down well. Dalits and the Ezhavas, an OBC group, were the mainstay of the Left in Kerala. Though the Congress-led UDF held an uncritical view of EWS, it reached out , by accommodating leaders from these communities in various party fora.
Moving to Christians, the other significant minority in Kerala, the introduction of the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill 2026 by the Union government amid the election campaign, deeply influenced voting preferences. The clergy viewed it as a serious threat to minority-run institutions. This being a national issue, the Christian community may have felt that the CPM was less effective than the Congress in addressing it at the national level due to its relative lack of numbers in both houses of Parliament.
The election outcome has significantly underscored the importance of national issues and the lack of trust in the LDF among minority communities and Dalits in Kerala. The LDF, particularly the CPM, will need to tweak its idea of inclusive politics if it wants to win back significant sections that voted against the front and party in this election.
MH Ilias is director, School of Gender Studies, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala. The views expressed are personal
