Betting on ongoing geopolitical events has caught global attention since United States attack Iran earlier this year. However, this time, the White House is alarmed as anonymous betters have won a whopping ₹5.22 crore ($600,000) betting on the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, the White House, federal agencies, and congressional investigators are concerned amid mounting evidence that prediction markets such as are being used to cash in on non-public government information.
White House lawyers probe anonymous ceasefire bets
Concern first stirred earlier in 2026 after anonymous accounts on Polymarket placed five-figure wagers, in rupee terms running into several lakh, that President Trump and Iran would strike an initial ceasefire before the end of April.
Senior officials reportedly worried that whoever placed the bets may have drawn on insider knowledge to guarantee an easy win.
White House Counsel’s Office staff reportedly canvassed aides across the building, attempting to identify who among hundreds of employees might be behind the wagers. The effort ultimately stalled. Polymarket permits users to register anonymously, making it nearly impossible for lawyers to trace individual bettors, even though the proceeds themselves could be tracked on the blockchain, according to WSJ report.
Rather than naming names, the issued a general caution. A memo circulated in late March instructed staff that using non-public information for personal financial gain was strictly prohibited.
The warning came too late to stop the payout. Three anonymous Polymarket accounts collected more than ₹5.22 crore ($600,000) after correctly predicting the April ceasefire announcement, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
Trump’s teleprompter’s wagers spark CFTC investigation
The episode that has drawn the most scrutiny involves Trump’s own teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez. The White House this week confirmed that Perez is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over wagers exceeding ₹87 lakh ($100,000), allegedly placed using early access to presidential speeches.
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Trump administration had no knowledge of the bets and pointed to existing ethics rules that bar employees from such conduct. She added that Trump was furious at the suggestion that anyone inside his administration might be trading on privileged information.
Perez, who has worked as a technical aide to Donald Trump since 2016, has since been placed on unpaid leave.
US V-P pick bets trace back to 2024 campaign
The pattern of suspicious wagering is not new. Two previously unreported bets placed during the 2024 presidential campaign were reportedly built on advance tips that Trump would select JD Vance as his running mate, according to people familiar with those incidents.
One such account came from Mark Moran, a former investment banker who says he learned of the Vance pick over dinner at a Georgetown cocktail bar, courtesy of Jake Denton, then a research associate at the Heritage Foundation. Acting on the tip, Moran placed a modest ₹78,300 ($900) wager on the Polymarket app roughly a month before the choice became official.
“I’m doing Vance,” Moran wrote to Denton in a message he later shared, before urging friends to follow suit. “I got a kid in the Heritage Foundation who has been leaking this to me,” he told an associate, “so went all in on Vance.”
The trade earned him roughly ₹52,200 ($600) in cryptocurrency, records show. Moran later mounted his own long-shot independent bid for the US Senate against incumbent Mark Warner of Virginia.
Kalshi has since accused him of violating platform rules by betting on a race in which he was himself a candidate.
Congresswoman denies tipping off influencer on running mate pick
A separate account places at the centre of another wager. Over lunch at a members-only club in Tampa during the summer of 2024, Luna allegedly told associates she already knew Vance would be chosen. She is said to have shared the information with conservative influencer Rogan O’Handley, known online as “DC Draino,” who then placed a winning bet on Polymarket.
Luna has firmly denied the claim. “I am honored the WSJ thinks I am telepathic but unfortunately I am not,” she said in a statement, adding that she would “continue to champion the fight against insider trading.”
O’Handley, for his part, rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing. He added that he was previously unaware of any federal probe into the matter. The CFTC is understood to be examining the allegation, though officials caution that an investigation does not by itself indicate wrongdoing.
Political betting volumes surge ahead of November elections
The scale of the activity has grown sharply. Political wagering on Polymarket roughly doubled to just over ₹34,800 crore ($4 billion) in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2025, according to figures from the non-profit Anti-Corruption Data Collective.
Election-related bets alone account for more than ₹2,827 crore ($325 million) of that total.
Kalshi says it has taken a firmer line, having blocked dozens of campaign staffers from wagering on races involving their own candidates. “Our teams work 24/7 to monitor and flag any anomalous trading patterns, and we investigate every single one of them,” said Elisabeth Diana, a spokesperson for the company told WSJ.
A Polymarket spokesperson told WSJ, that the platform actively monitors for insider trading and has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement.
Regulators and Congress step up scrutiny of prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the primary regulator overseeing prediction markets, has requested information from both Kalshi and Polymarket regarding bets tied to political and military developments. The agency faces a structural challenge: insider-trading statutes were never designed for platforms where users can wager on outcomes ranging from a president’s choice of necktie to the composition of a national ticket.
In the Senate, lawmakers passed a resolution in April barring members and their staff, many of whom routinely handle sensitive material, from using Kalshi or Polymarket.
Lobbying and hospitality blur lines in Washington
Prediction markets have also woven themselves into the capital’s social calendar. Kalshi hosted a reception in June at a beer garden near Nationals Park to mark the congressional baseball game, with company representatives mixing among congressional staff at an open bar that ran up a bill exceeding ₹87,000 ($1,000) within the first hour.
Guests included Collin Sabine, legislative director for Representative Pat Harrigan of North Carolina, who co-sponsored legislation earlier this year barring members of Congress, their spouses and dependants from owning individual stocks.
Also present was Tony Hanagan, a former Senate Republican leadership aide who registered as a lobbyist for Kalshi days before the event and now serves as the company’s head of congressional affairs. Senate rules prevent him from lobbying members of that chamber for a year, though his disclosure confirms he will engage with House members and staff.
