Slowing population growth could soon weigh on the U.S. economy, trimming an estimated $104 billion from the country’s gross domestic product compared with what it would have been if population growth had held at its previous pace, according to a new analysis from economic forecasting company Implan.
While U.S. population growth has been slowing for decades due to low birth rates, immigration sharply dropped during the first year of the Trump administration, leading to the lowest population growth since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. Census data found last year.
In 2025, the number of new U.S. residents dropped to 1.8 million, down from 3.2 million in the prior year, leaving a “growth gap” of 1.4 million people, Implan said in its analysis. Those missing workers and consumers would have contributed an additional $86 billion in household spending and supported 741,500 jobs, Implan found.
While the analysis examines the impact of slowing growth in 2026, the issue could have long-term ramifications on everything from the strength of the Social Security system to job opportunities for younger workers.
“Population growth isn’t just a demographic statistic — it’s a driver of economic activity,” Nadège Ngomsi, an economist at Implan, told CBS News. “When growth decides to slow sharply, spending slows, job creation slows, and these effects ripple through the local economies.”
To be sure, a $100 billion dip in growth represents a small fraction of the nation’s roughly $31 trillion economy. And economic growth in the U.S. is picking up, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 (the most recent data available) expanding at a 4.3% annualized rate, faster than the nation’s typical 2% to 3% pace, according to recent government data.
Even so, slower population growth is likely to ripple through the economy, with the immediate impacts felt in industries that are reliant on new household formation, such as housing, construction and health care, Ngomsi told CBS News.
“If growth slows down, then you see fewer households and less demand for housing,” she said.
That could ease upward pressure on housing prices, she said, potentially making homeownership more attainable for millions of would-be buyers currently priced out of the market. But that may only go so far if mortgage rates remain relatively high, she added.
The role of immigration in driving home prices and labor market conditions has been widely debated, with the Trump administration arguing that deportations could ease housing costs. But housing experts say the post-pandemic surge in home prices has been driven largely by other forces, including years of underbuilding and strong demand from native-born buyers.
The trend of slower population growth means that U.S. businesses and policymakers should focus on boosting worker productivity and increasing labor force participation, Implan’s report noted.
“I do truly believe there is a way out of this,” Ngomsi said.
