New images in Nancy Guthrie disappearance could “break this case wide open,” retired FBI agent says

Surveillance photos and videos released by the FBI showing a subject in the disappearance of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy Guthrie, could “break this case wide open,” according to a retired FBI special agent. 

The video footage and images show a person outside Nancy Guthrie’s front door in Tucson, Arizona, wearing a ski mask and gloves and carrying a backpack and what appears to be a weapon. 

“Take a look at each piece of clothing. Each article that he has. The weapon. The backpack. Look at his eyebrows. The ski mask. Look at those things individually. And then, collectively, watch how he walks. Look at his gate. Look at the person’s demeanor,” retired special agent Jason Pack told CBS News on Tuesday, of what he would be looking at specifically in the images. “Does somebody recognize how somebody walks like that? Somebody’s gonna know that if this is a relative of theirs or a friend or a co-worker, somebody will know them.” 

The FBI said law enforcement uncovered the images showing an armed individual appearing to have tampered with the camera on the morning of Guthrie’s disappearance. The 84-year-old was reported missing Feb. 1.

In one video, the person approaches the front door and raises a gloved hand in front of the security camera on Nancy Guthrie’s front door before walking away. Another video shows the person facing the camera and holding a flashlight in their mouth before covering the camera lens with what law enforcement officials told CBS News appears to be prairie brush.  

The masked figure possibly has a gun on the front of their belt, law enforcement sources said. Two law enforcement sources told CBS News the individual in the images is considered a subject that they are seeking to identify. The person at this point is not considered a suspect or a person of interest, according to the sources.

Lance Leising, a retired supervisory agent with the FBI, told “CBS Evening News” anchor Tony Dokoupil what he saw in the videos was “someone who has taken great planning to hide their appearance, yet poor planning and poor professionalism as to how they approached this door and the ultimate crime scene.” 

Pack said, “You’re also able now to go out with a photo of the person, back into the neighborhoods, back to the larger area of Tucson there, with a photo and say, ‘Do you know this person? Have you seen these backpacks? Have you seen somebody carrying a holster like that?'”

Mary Ellen O’Toole, a former senior FBI profiler, also told CBS News the subject’s attire could give away their identity. 

“It’s not unrealistic, and it’s happened in other cases, where the offender actually does a dress rehearsal before they go out and commit the crime. They want to make sure everything fits. Everything feels right. Everything’s where it’s supposed to be on their body,” O’Toole said. “So, it’s possible that somebody watching that will say, ‘I saw when he went through that dress rehearsal. I saw that clothing.'”

The images, captured by a Nest camera at Nancy Guthrie’s home, were released Tuesday, 10 days after she went missing. Asked why it took so long to find the footage, Pack said, “The FBI has recovered a needle in the haystack.” The FBI and the sheriff’s department said the images were recovered from “residual data located in backend systems.” Two law enforcement sources told CBS News the FBI worked with Google to get the Nest camera video.

“The fact that they’re able to go when there’s no subscription and it’s just out there in cyberspace … is actually really remarkable,” Pack said. 

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told reporters last week that Nancy Guthrie’s doorbell camera was disconnected at about 1:47 a.m. the day she was abducted. One of the house cameras then detected what the system classified as a person at around 2:12 a.m. Nanos said at the time that video footage wasn’t immediately available because Nancy Guthrie’s home wasn’t subscribed to that service, and footage would be overwritten after a period of time.  

Both Pack and Leising told CBS News it’s likely there is more footage that the FBI is either trying to recover or has already recovered and is not releasing to the public, noting there were more cameras inside the home.

Pack also said there could be evidence on the welcome mat outside the door, which the person appears to have stepped on.

“Hopefully they’ve collected that welcome mat to see if there’s any trace evidence on there from dirt or from gravel or from whatever else that may place him in certain other areas of the city or the country,” he said. “So if any kind of piece of dirt off of your shoe, those types of things, the lab’s gonna be able to take a known sample from the area and see, does that actually belong there too?”

Savannah Guthrie and her siblings have released several videos pleading with their mother’s abductor or abductors to bring her home. A deadline from an apparent ransom note that demanded payment in bitcoin passed Monday, and an FBI spokesperson told CBS News the bureau wasn’t aware of any continued communication between the Guthrie family and the suspected kidnappers.  

Savannah Guthrie on Tuesday responded to the new images on Instagram, writing, “Someone out there recognizes this person. We believe she is still out there. Bring her home.”  

No suspects have been identified in the investigation as of Monday night.

Pack said that, in addition to someone possibly recognizing the subject, the release of the images could put pressure on the person. 

“Usually, that’s when the criminals will make mistakes,” he said.

“They’re gonna feel the pressure. So they’re making decisions right now. They know somebody’s gonna recognize that backpack. It’s just a matter of time where somebody’s gonna recognize the clothing they’re wearing or his eyebrows or his gate,” Pack added. “So I think the pressure is really on them, and it’s what investigators are counting on so they can flush them out and find where they are.”

Anyone with possible information on Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is asked to call 520-882-7463. The FBI also set up a tip line, at 800-CALL-FBI, and is offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to Nancy Guthrie’s recovery or the arrest and conviction of people involved in her disappearance.

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