Even as Iran continue using drones and missiles to attack Israeli infrastructure and US assets in West Asia, most of its are “combat ineffective” and would be unable to fulfil their intended missions, even if half of the launchers remain “intact,” US-based think tank Institute of the Study of War’s report stated on Saturday.
US intelligence assessments finds hat 50 per cent of Iranian missile launchers are still intact, but a launcher unit becomes combat ineffective, even if it has suffered no damage, when it cannot accomplish its assigned mission, the report notes
Noting that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile force has been “significantly degraded,” while the short-range ones has conducted attacks at a steady rate, the report read, “Assessing Iran’s missile threat accurately requires distinguishing between different missile types. The combined force has rendered many of Iran’s missile launchers combat ineffective, but it is entirely unclear whether these “launchers” refer to launchers for medium- range or short-range systems or whether any of the launchers are interchangeable between medium-range and short-range systems… The rate of Iranian missile fire suggests that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile force has been significantly degraded.”
“The short-range ballistic missile force has continued to conduct attacks at a steady rate, but the status of the short-range missile force remains unclear,” it added.
The think tank further noted that sustained US-Israeli strikes since February 28 have created a “pervasive fear” within Iranian forces, contributing to a decline in missile launches since March 20. The report also claimed a recruitment and retention challenges among the Iranian armed forces.
The think tank wrote, ” strikes, particularly decapitation strikes, have also created a pervasive fear that may cause Iranian forces to prioritise their survival and impede their ability to execute their assigned mission… Iranian missile fire targeting Israel has steadily declined since the beginning of the war. Iran has, on average, fired only a few missiles per salvo at Israel since March 20. This impact is less clear within the short- range missile force. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on March 31 that combined force airstrikes have degraded the Iranian military’s morale and even led to ‘widespread desertions, key personnel shortages, and caused frustrations amongst senior leaders.’ Iranian forces also appear to be struggling with recruitment and retention.”
The institute noted that Iran’s ability to rebuild the stockpiles of drones and missiles has degraded.
“The US-Israeli campaign has solidified the operational success generated by rendering launchers combat ineffective and destroying missile stockpiles by targeting Iran’s defence industrial base extensively. Strikes on these sites will make it more challenging for Iran to reconstitute its missile and drone program over the long-term. Iran retains an unclear number of missiles and drones in its stockpiles, but ongoing strikes on Iranian defence industrial sites degrade Iran’s ability to rebuild these stockpiles. Iran has also used a sizable portion of its weapons stockpiles in attacks on Israel and the since the war began,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, Iranian and allied forces have initiated “Wave 93” of their ongoing retaliatory campaign, targeting key Israeli military staging areas, according to state broadcaster Press TV. The strikes signal a notable escalation in the regional conflict. Citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Press TV said the latest phase of “Operation True Promise 4” was launched on Friday afternoon.
