Four states and one Union territory will witness a war of ideas this month. It would be a mistake to consider the upcoming assembly elections as mere jousting for power by rival political parties. This will be a duel between principles nurtured over decades and emerging political thought.
Let’s begin with Tamil Nadu. In 1967, nine states first elected non-Congress governments, and, till date, the Congress has not regained the lost political ground in Tamil Nadu. Currently, it is in coalition with the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK). Even after a long partnership, both the parties constantly differ over seat- and power-sharing. The Congress wants more seats to share power if they win, Stalin is completely against any kind of power-sharing with the Congress. This time though, India’s Grand Old Party was able to wrest more seats from him.
The BJP, which has been eyeing a foothold in the state for years now, attempted a tie-up with Tamil superstar Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). But Vijay decided to go alone. Only time will tell if he will make a difference. If Vijay ends up being a vote-splitter, then the opposition’s plan can go awry. Stalin would be the ultimate beneficiary in such a scenario.
Stalin is facing anti-incumbency. The Opposition is aggressively cornering him on the issues of law and order and corruption. Even within his party, there have been murmurs of discontent ever since he made his son, Udayanidhi, the deputy chief minister. However, Stalin has shown political astuteness by winning over major leaders such as O Panneerselvam, V Maitreyan, A Anwar Raja and many others to the DMK fold.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, after the death of J Jayalalithaa, is trying hard to regain lost ground, under the leadership of Edapaddi Palaniswami. The BJP has joined hands with them. But Sasikala, a former aide of J Jayalalithaa, is trying to play spoilsport. That said, the coalition remains in the fray. The BJP can offer the coalition the same strength that the Congress provides to the DMK. During the last elections, despite decline, the Congress cornered 4.3% votes. The BJP, with a little improvement, received 2.6% of the votes but was instrumental in winning four seats. It’s clear that in a tight contest even such incremental support matters.
Moving to West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee has been at the helm for the last 15 years. Like the BJP, she too makes every electoral contest a matter of life and death. Her Lakshmi Bhandar Yojana has turned a large section of the state’s women into her captive vote-bank. During the last elections when the BJP raised the Bangladeshi infiltrator issue to polarise the electorate, women shielded the ruling dispensation in the state from the BJP’s attempt to win office. But news of internal tussle, corruption, and anti-incumbency are doing the rounds. The opposition is trying to milk these as much as it can.
The Congress is going it alone this time, after being in coalition with the Communist Left. The Left parties are also working hard to regain their lost glory. It would be interesting to see if these parties can achieve respectable results or merely split the anti-Mamata vote. If Tamil Nadu is a test of Dravidian politics, the Bengal elections will decide the fate of Ma-Mati-Manush (mother, homeland, locals) politics.
The Left is doing everything it can to save its last bastion, Kerala. The Congress is hopeful too. Its alliance has been tried and tested by the electorate in the state before, and Rahul Gandhi has represented it in Lok Sabha; now, Priyanka Gandhi does. And, the party’s most powerful general secretary, KC Venugopal, also belongs to Kerala. The BJP is upbeat too after municipal corporation elections. A tussle between Right, Left and Centre makes it an interesting contest.
Let’s talk about Assam. The BJP poached Himanta Biswa Sarma from the Congress. It proved an extremely successful experiment. Sarma is now the most popular leader from the North East. He’s strong-willed and has assumed a strident Hindutva posture since joining the BJP. On the pretext of targeting Bangladeshis, he openly targets Muslims. Assam’s women hold the key to a third of the state’s 126 seats, and they are committed supporters of the BJP. Recently, Sarma orchestrated the induction of former Congress state president Bhupen Bora and Nowgaon MP Pradyut Bordoloi into the BJP.
Forty percent of Assam’s voters are Muslims. Badruddin Ajmal and his All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)’s politics have survived on this vote-bank for the last 21 years. In the last elections, Ajmal and the Congress were together; this time, they are contesting separately. The Congress wants to shed its pro-Muslim image but also considers them as a key vote for the party. But Badruddin and his ally, Asaduddin Owaisi of the AIMIM, can upset its applecart.
You may be wondering why I haven’t discussed the Union territory of Puducherry. Puducherry is seen as an extension of Tamil Nadu, and though the BJP has managed to form a government, there is no life- and-death contest here.
One thing is clear. The outcome of these political contests will fundamentally alter the direction and the state of politics of the entire nation. It’s not an electoral battle, it’s a battle royale between two political narratives.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal
