Yemen’s threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has increased the global concerns over energy supplies and maritime trade at a time when another critical transit route in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, is already under stress due to the war in the West Asia.
The warning came after Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, said the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz could be closed “in an operational alliance” if Saudi Arabia continued targeting Yemen’s critical infrastructure.
“If the current situation aggravates, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock,” al-Farah said in a statement on Monday.
What could be the consequences?
The potential consequences of simultaneous disruptions at two of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints could send oil prices soaring while also disrupting global trade.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and serves as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, making it a vital route for trade between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Around 8.8 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the corridor every day, while an estimated 10-12 per cent of global seaborne trade depends on the route.
At its narrowest point, the strait is about 29 kilometre wide.
The Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, carries around 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption. Together, Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb form the primary maritime corridor through which Gulf producers export crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to international markets.
A simultaneous disruption at both waterways would constrain global energy supplies, forcing oil tankers and container ships to take the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.
The diversion would add roughly 12 to 15 days to voyages between Asia and Europe, increasing fuel consumption, insurance costs and freight rates while delaying deliveries of crude oil, LNG, food products and manufactured goods.
Renewed hostilities between Yemen and Saudi
The warning comes amid renewed hostilities between Yemen’s Ansarullah movement and Saudi Arabia. Yemeni officials accused Riyadh of targeting civilian infrastructure, including Sanaa International Airport, while warning of further escalation if the attacks continue.
The Yemeni forces have further claimed to have launched missile and drone strikes targeting military installations, including King Khalid Air Base and Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia.
